Republican VP Nominee 2028
Leader sits at 32% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Vivek Ramaswamy
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Marco Rubio
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$159
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 14, 2028
828 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Republican VP Nominee 2028
Republican VP Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance
0xfeccfc…a981
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Thomas Massie
0x4babbd…499d
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Kristi Noem
0x3675ed…a9f9
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Vivek Ramaswamy
0xabe8f5…b237
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Marco Rubio
0xce6f51…bf77
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Brian Kemp
0x8d0dd3…b758
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Erika Kirk
0x130145…8e09
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Ivanka Trump
0xe68a73…0497
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Mike Pence
0xeec953…11b1
Republican VP Nominee 2028: Eric Trump
0x933dd6…64d0
Republican VP Nominee 2028: John Thune
0x43a25d…6418
What moved the line
- May 8John Thune↓17pp20→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Erika Kirk↓9pp15→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Marco Rubio↓7pp28→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.