Will Wilson Witzel win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
513 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Eduardo Paes win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election
Will Eduardo Paes win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election?: Eduardo Paes
KXRIOGOV-26OCT04-EPAE
Cluster 2
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election?: Douglas Ruas
KXRIOGOV-26OCT04-DRUA
Cluster 3
Will Wilson Witzel win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election
Will Wilson Witzel win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election?: Wilson Witzel
KXRIOGOV-26OCT04-WWIT
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market assessment that Wilson Witzel has a one-in-three chance of winning Rio de Janeiro's gubernatorial election in 2026. The 33% probability likely reflects Witzel's political positioning and name recognition from his previous tenure as governor, balanced against competition from other candidates and shifting voter preferences in the state. The outcome will be primarily determined by voter sentiment closer to election day, the strength of competing candidates' campaigns, and any developments affecting Witzel's political viability. The election occurs in October 2026, providing the key event that will resolve this uncertainty. Between now and then, candidate registration deadlines, polling data releases, and campaign developments will offer signals about the race's direction.
- ›Witzel's prior gubernatorial record and public approval ratings in Rio de Janeiro entering the 2026 cycle
- ›Number and strength of competing candidates who register for the election and their respective campaign resources
- ›Voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts in Rio de Janeiro compared to previous gubernatorial elections
- ›Major political or economic events affecting Rio state politics between now and the October 2026 election
- ›Performance of Witzel's party and allied candidates in interim elections or polling releases that signal electoral momentum
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.