Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.91 by Dec 31
Leader sits at 97% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.41
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above $0.56
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$135
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
217 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.16 by Dec 31?: Above $1.16
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-1.160
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.01 by Dec 31?: Above $1.01
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-1.010
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.91 by Dec 31?: Above $1.91
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-1.910
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.46 by Dec 31?: Above $1.46
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-1.460
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.61 by Dec 31?: Above $1.61
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-1.610
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.31 by Dec 31?: Above $1.31
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-1.310
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $2.21 by Dec 31?: Above $2.21
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-2.210
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $2.06 by Dec 31?: Above $2.06
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-2.060
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.76 by Dec 31?: Above $1.76
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-1.760
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.86 by Dec 31?: Above $0.86
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-0.860
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.71 by Dec 31?: Above $0.71
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-0.710
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.56 by Dec 31?: Above $0.56
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-0.560
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.41 by Dec 31?: Above $0.41
KXRTX5090MAX-26DEC31-0.410
Analysis
This market estimates an 97% probability that the RTX 5090's cost per compute hour will exceed $0.56 by year-end 2026, with sharply declining odds for higher price thresholds. The high baseline probability reflects confidence that the GPU will remain expensive relative to competing hardware, while steeper price cuts or alternative acceleration technologies would push costs downward. Market participants assign only 24% odds to exceeding $1.46 per hour—suggesting most expect moderate price declines over seven months rather than premium pricing. The actual resolution depends on RTX 5090 availability, manufacturing volume, competing GPU launches (particularly from AMD and Intel), and cloud provider pricing strategies. Major catalyst: NVIDIA's official launch specifications and vendor pricing announcements, typically accompanying or immediately following hardware release, will establish baseline costs that inform market repricing.
- ›NVIDIA RTX 5090 launch timing and initial MSRP versus previous-generation flagship pricing
- ›Availability and competitive positioning of alternative accelerators (AMD MI300X successors, Intel Gaudi updates) through H2 2026
- ›Cloud provider adoption rates and per-hour pricing tiers set by major vendors (AWS, Azure, GCP)
- ›Manufacturing yield and production ramp affecting supply constraints and secondary-market premiums
- ›Actual measured compute efficiency (FLOPs per watt, memory bandwidth utilization) versus marketing claims
What moved the line
- May 28Above $1.16↑35pp23→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $0.86↑30pp32→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.01↑28pp27→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.31↑12pp17→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.61↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBCDemocratlast 87% · 0d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- TX-33 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 90% · 1d
- Will Trump say "Autism" before Apr 27, 2026last 15% · 3d
- Will Brentford be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Seasonlast 94% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.