Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$774
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
178 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?: Charles Booker
KXSENATEKYD-26-CBOO
Cluster 2
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky?: Amy McGrath
KXSENATEKYD-26-AMCG
Analysis
This probability indicates an even-odds assessment that Pamela Stevenson will secure the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Kentucky. The 49% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the nomination race, likely driven by questions about candidate viability, fundraising capacity, and support within Kentucky's Democratic establishment. The outcome depends partly on whether Stevenson can build name recognition and organizational strength against other potential nominees, and partly on which candidates actually choose to enter the race. The primary election itself—scheduled for May 2026—will be the decisive event that resolves this uncertainty. Until voting occurs, the nomination remains genuinely competitive, with Stevenson holding neither a commanding position nor a marginal one.
- ›Candidate field composition: Whether other significant Democratic candidates enter or remain out of the Kentucky Senate race substantially affects Stevenson's nomination odds
- ›Fundraising trajectory: Comparative fundraising between Stevenson and competing candidates through Q2 2026 provides concrete evidence of organizational strength and donor confidence
- ›Statewide polling data: Democratic primary polling in Kentucky, if available, would show Stevenson's relative standing and momentum among likely primary voters
- ›Endorsements from party leadership: Support from established Kentucky Democratic figures and national party officials influences primary outcomes measurably
- ›Primary election date: The May 2026 primary election directly resolves this question and will show actual voting behavior across Kentucky Democratic voters
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.