Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 8%
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above 10%
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$16K
liquid
Closes
Sep 5, 2026
100 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 10%
KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-10
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 16% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 16%
KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-16
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 12%
KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-12
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 14%
KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-14
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 8% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 8%
KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-8
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 20% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 20%
KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-20
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 18% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 18%
KXSG-26AUGMARGIN-18
Analysis
This reflects the market's expectation that Sweetgreen will achieve above 8% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, with declining probability as the margin threshold increases. The current 77% probability on the 8% threshold reflects recent operational improvements and cost management, though margins remain sensitive to labor costs, commodity inflation, and same-store sales growth. The resolution depends on Q2 2026 earnings, typically reported 4–6 weeks after quarter-end in early August 2026. The probability structure shows traders expect Sweetgreen more likely to clear 8–10% margins than higher thresholds, suggesting modest but fragile profitability. Actual margin performance will be determined by traffic trends, pricing power, and overhead absorption across its restaurant base.
- ›Same-store sales growth rate in Q2 2026 relative to prior year and guidance provided by management
- ›Labor cost trends, minimum wage changes in key markets, and staffing efficiency improvements or deterioration
- ›Commodity and supply chain costs, particularly for produce and proteins, in Q2 2026 versus Q1
- ›Restaurant-level operating expenses excluding food and labor as a percentage of sales, indicating overhead management
- ›Q2 2026 earnings release date and actual reported restaurant-level margin figures versus the 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%, and 16% thresholds
What moved the line
- May 27Above 14%↑24pp25→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Above 10%↑17pp57→74¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Above 16%↑17pp14→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Above 12%↑16pp38→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above 12%↑15pp54→69¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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