South Korea By-Elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
25 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner: Democratic Party of Korea
South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner: Democratic Party of Korea (DP)
0x9d5c63…121f
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that South Korea's Democratic Party of Korea (DP) will win the most seats in upcoming by-elections. The high 97% level suggests strong confidence in a DP victory, likely driven by recent polling data and the party's current political standing relative to the conservative People Power Party (PPP). Key factors pushing the probability up include favorable approval ratings or seat projections for the DP, while unfavorable election-day turnout or last-minute political shifts could lower it. The main resolution catalyst is the actual by-election results, which will determine the exact seat distribution between parties. Market participants are also tracking related outcomes like the specific number of seats won by the PPP and leadership changes within the ruling coalition.
- ›Most recent polling numbers showing DP vote share and projected seat allocation relative to PPP
- ›Voter turnout patterns and demographic composition of districts holding by-elections compared to historical baselines
- ›Any significant political scandals or leadership announcements affecting either major party in the weeks before voting
- ›Official by-election date and final candidate rosters from both DP and PPP
- ›Real-time exit polling or early voting data if available on election day itself
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.