Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 1.2–1.5M

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that turnout in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff falls between 1.2 million and 1.5 million votes. The 35% current level suggests market participants view this mid-range outcome as moderately unlikely relative to higher or lower turnout scenarios. Turnout in runoff elections typically declines from initial primary contests, which would argue for the lower end of historical ranges. However, a competitive race featuring Attorney General Ken Paxton—evidenced by the close margin contracts trading—could drive engagement above typical runoff norms. The resolution depends on actual votes cast on election day. Key factors include whether Paxton faces a narrow challenger, voter fatigue following an earlier primary, and the level of outside spending and mobilization efforts. The most direct catalyst will be the official vote tallies released by the Texas Secretary of State following the runoff election.

• ›Paxton's margin-of-victory contracts cluster between 3–9%, indicating a competitive race that could elevate turnout versus non-competitive runoffs
• ›Runoff elections historically see 25–40% turnout relative to initial primary elections in Texas; the denominator of eligible voters determines whether 1.2–1.5M falls above or below trend
• ›Campaign spending and voter mobilization intensity, particularly from outside groups supporting either candidate, directly correlates with turnout in low-salience contests
• ›Early voting participation and mail-ballot requests in the weeks preceding the runoff would provide measurable signals of turnout trajectory
• ›The timing and messaging of endorsements from the initial primary winner (if not Paxton) could either suppress or energize the broader electorate

What moved the line

• May 31.5–1.8M↑14pp18→32¢ · Polymarket
• May 61.5–1.8M↓14pp32→18¢ · Polymarket
• May 70.6–0.9M↑7pp12→19¢ · Polymarket
• May 31.2–1.5M↓6pp39→33¢ · Polymarket
• May 61.2–1.5M↑6pp33→39¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds