Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%
Leader sits at 70% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.4%
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Above -0.6%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jun 12, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T0.1
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T-0.1
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T0.0
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T0.2
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T0.4
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T-0.2
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T-0.4
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T-0.3
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T-0.5
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T0.8
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.7%?: Above 0.7%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T0.7
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T0.6
Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.6%?: Above -0.6%
KXUKGDPMOM-26JUN12-T-0.6
Analysis
This contract asks whether UK GDP expanded month-over-month in March 2026, or contracted by 0.1% or less. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence that a significant contraction did not occur. UK economic momentum, recent employment data, and consumer spending patterns heading into Q1 2026 appear to be driving this high reading; weakness in these indicators would lower the probability. The resolution depends on the Office for National Statistics' official GDP release, typically published 30 days after month-end. March 2026 data would ordinarily be released in late April, meaning this contract was likely already settled or is imminently resolvable. Traders are pricing in a modest positive or flat performance rather than a pronounced decline.
- ›UK labor market strength and unemployment levels in early 2026 influence consumer confidence and spending capacity
- ›Monthly services and manufacturing PMI readings for March 2026 signal real-time economic activity and business confidence
- ›Retail sales data for March 2026 provides advance signals of consumer demand before GDP release
- ›Brexit-related supply chain disruptions or trade friction could suppress month-on-month activity
- ›Sterling exchange rates and import/export pricing dynamics affect measured GDP growth in nominal terms
Recently closed in recession
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%last 92% · 2d
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%last 62% · 2d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 3d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 3d
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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