Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%
Leader sits at 86% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.5%
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Above -0.4%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$600
thin orderbook
Closes
May 14, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T-0.1
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T-0.2
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T0.4
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T0.3
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T0.2
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T0.1
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T0.0
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T-0.3
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T-0.4
Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5%
KXUKGDPMOM-26MAY14-T-0.5
Analysis
This contract asks whether UK GDP expanded month-over-month in March 2026, or contracted by 0.1% or less. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence that a significant contraction did not occur. UK economic momentum, recent employment data, and consumer spending patterns heading into Q1 2026 appear to be driving this high reading; weakness in these indicators would lower the probability. The resolution depends on the Office for National Statistics' official GDP release, typically published 30 days after month-end. March 2026 data would ordinarily be released in late April, meaning this contract was likely already settled or is imminently resolvable. Traders are pricing in a modest positive or flat performance rather than a pronounced decline.
- ›UK labor market strength and unemployment levels in early 2026 influence consumer confidence and spending capacity
- ›Monthly services and manufacturing PMI readings for March 2026 signal real-time economic activity and business confidence
- ›Retail sales data for March 2026 provides advance signals of consumer demand before GDP release
- ›Brexit-related supply chain disruptions or trade friction could suppress month-on-month activity
- ›Sterling exchange rates and import/export pricing dynamics affect measured GDP growth in nominal terms
What moved the line
- May 6Above 0.2%↓3pp26→23¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Aprillast 97% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?last 3% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.