Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
0x4167e2…1415
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Ukraine and Russia will reach a formal peace agreement by the end of 2026. The 27% level suggests markets view a deal as possible but unlikely within the next seven months, with significant uncertainty about negotiating willingness, territorial concessions, and NATO involvement. The current assessment balances ongoing military stalemate against diplomatic obstacles and the challenge of reconciling conflicting war objectives. Key factors include Russia's military capacity to sustain operations, Ukraine's willingness to negotiate territorial terms, US and European support continuity, and whether either party believes conditions will improve through further conflict. The most consequential near-term signal would come from any announced peace talks or shift in either nation's stated preconditions for negotiation.
- ›Current Russian military capabilities and rate of territorial gains, which would shift incentives toward or away from negotiation
- ›Explicit statements by Ukrainian and Russian leadership regarding willingness to enter peace talks and acceptable settlement terms
- ›Continuation or change in Western military aid flows to Ukraine, which directly affects negotiating leverage
- ›NATO expansion or security guarantee proposals for Ukraine, which Russia identifies as a core negotiating sticking point
- ›Evidence of war fatigue, economic strain, or domestic political pressure in either Russia or Ukraine that would motivate settlement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (29% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.