Will the House vote on any resolution providing for the expulsion of Representative Cory Mills (R-FL) from the United States House of Representatives

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the likelihood that the House will hold a vote on a resolution to expel Representative Cory Mills (R-FL) before June 1, 2026. The 50% market price suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether formal expulsion proceedings will advance. The probability reflects competing dynamics: the threshold for expulsion proceedings is high (requiring investigation, formal charges, and sufficient member support), but Mills' conduct or statements could trigger action from colleagues or leadership. Key factors include whether any specific incident or allegation emerges that prompts a formal expulsion resolution, whether House leadership chooses to bring such a resolution to a vote if filed, and the broader political environment affecting intra-party discipline. Resolution depends on congressional actions rather than external events, meaning the probability could shift sharply if formal charges or a resolution is introduced and scheduled for debate.

• ›No expulsion vote has been scheduled or formally proposed as of early May 2026; any movement requires submission of a resolution followed by leadership decision to bring it to the floor
• ›Recent congressional expulsions are rare—the House expelled George Santos in late 2023, suggesting high institutional thresholds and party reluctance absent extraordinary circumstances
• ›The timeframe is compressed (less than one month from today); expulsion proceedings typically move slowly, reducing the window for procedural steps to complete
• ›Market pricing at 50% for the lead contract versus 38% for the runner-up suggests no clear consensus, indicating limited public information about imminent expulsion efforts
• ›Any new allegations, criminal charges, or ethics committee findings involving Mills in May 2026 would be the primary catalyst to shift probabilities materially

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds