Will USA score at least 5 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−30pp
20h ago
24h volume
$6
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
46 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will USA score at least
Will USA score at least 12 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 12+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-12
Will USA score at least 10 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 10+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-10
Will USA score at least 8 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 8+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-8
Will USA score at least 7 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 7+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-7
Will USA score at least 6 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 6+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-6
Will USA score at least 5 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-5
Will USA score at least 4 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 4+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-4
Will USA score at least 3 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-3
Will USA score at least 2 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 2+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-2
Cluster 2
Will Portugal score at least
Will Portugal score at least 3 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-3
Will Portugal score at least 11 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 11+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-11
Will Portugal score at least 9 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 9+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-9
Will Portugal score at least 8 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 8+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-8
Will Portugal score at least 7 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 7+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-7
Will Portugal score at least 6 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 6+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-6
Will Portugal score at least 5 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-5
Will Portugal score at least 4 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 4+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26POR-4
Cluster 3
Will Netherlands score at least
Will Netherlands score at least 3 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26NED-3
Will Netherlands score at least 5 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26NED-5
Will Netherlands score at least 4 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 4+ goals
KXWCTEAMGOALS-26NED-4
Analysis
This probability indicates a less-than-even chance that the USA will score 5 or more goals across its three group-stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 43% estimate reflects uncertainty about the team's offensive output relative to typical World Cup group-stage performances. The USA's historical scoring patterns, the strength of opponents in its assigned group, and team roster composition through 2026 are primary drivers of this probability. Notable context includes that scoring 5 goals in group play requires averaging roughly 1.7 goals per match—a moderately high bar for most national teams. The resolution of this market will depend entirely on the results of the three group-stage matches, scheduled to occur in June-July 2026. Market participants are pricing in meaningful doubt about whether the team will achieve this scoring threshold despite having favorable conditions in expanded 48-team format.
- ›USA averaged 1.88 goals per match across all competitive games in 2024-2025, suggesting 5 goals in 3 matches (1.67 per game) is achievable but not highly probable
- ›The assignment of USA's group opponents in early 2026 will materially affect scoring likelihood—stronger defensive teams would lower probability while weaker opponents would increase it
- ›Historical World Cup group-stage data shows median goal totals per team cluster around 3-4 goals, making 5 goals an above-median outcome
- ›The 4+ goals contract trading at 60¢ versus the 5+ goals contract at 48¢ indicates market participants view the difference between 4 and 5 goals as a meaningful probability gap
- ›USA squad composition and fitness status will be finalized by June 2026, with any significant injuries to offensive players capable of shifting expectations downward
What moved the line
- May 272+ goals↓8pp29→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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