What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 30% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $85
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
↑ $95
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$405
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
6 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit in May 2026
Analysis
This market measures the probability that Netflix's stock will trade at or below $80 at some point during May 2026. Currently priced at 36%, the contract reflects moderate skepticism that the stock will decline to this level, with traders appearing more confident in a floor near $85 or upside movement toward $95–$100. The probability is shaped by Netflix's recent stock performance, broader market conditions, and investor sentiment around the company's growth trajectory. Key drivers include quarterly earnings reports, subscriber growth announcements, and macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations. Since we are already in mid-May 2026, the contract's resolution depends on whether the stock reaches $80 before the month closes, making any significant market movements or company news in the coming days highly relevant to the outcome.
- ›Netflix's current stock price relative to $80 and proximity to month-end; any intraday moves below $80 would resolve the contract
- ›Timing of any May earnings call, guidance revision, or subscriber data announcement that could trigger volatility
- ›Broader tech sector performance and market appetite for mega-cap growth stocks during the final weeks of May
- ›Historical volatility of NFLX and the distance between current price and the $80 strike level
- ›Competitive or regulatory developments (content spend, password-sharing enforcement, ad-tier growth) that move sentiment
What moved the line
- May 22↑ $110↓21pp23→2¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↑ $110↑19pp4→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 21↓ $85↓15pp43→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↑ $95↓13pp27→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 25↑ $95↓8pp16→8¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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