What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026?

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Palantir's stock will decline to $126 or below during May 2026. At 48%, the outcome is viewed as the most likely among several downside and upside scenarios. The high trading volume ($23k in 24 hours) indicates active uncertainty around the stock's near-term direction. Downside bets dominate the contract set, with three of five outcomes positioned below current levels, suggesting traders weight negative momentum or profit-taking. The runner-up contract at 22% assumes an even steeper decline to $120, while bullish scenarios above $150 total only 23% combined. Key drivers include Palantir's earnings performance, macroeconomic sentiment affecting growth-oriented tech stocks, and broader market volatility. The outcome resolves at month-end, making company announcements, economic data, or significant geopolitical developments the primary catalysts that could shift probabilities substantially before expiration.

• ›Downside contracts account for 74% of aggregate probability, indicating sustained bearish positioning relative to upside scenarios
• ›Trading volume is concentrated in the $126 contract ($23k 24h), suggesting this threshold represents a material price level traders view as probable
• ›High-probability downside outcomes ($108–$126) collectively represent 52%, versus only 23% for upside moves above $150, indicating asymmetric risk perception
• ›The $20 spread between the leading outcome ($126) and runner-up ($120) creates marginal conviction, leaving room for repricing if company fundamentals or macro conditions shift
• ›May expiration provides limited time for resolution; contract pricing reflects expected moves within a compressed timeframe rather than longer-term trend expectations

What moved the line

• May 20↓ $126↓10pp45→35¢ · Polymarket
• May 21↓ $126↓8pp35→27¢ · Polymarket
• May 19↓ $126↓7pp52→45¢ · Polymarket
• May 21↓ $120↓7pp17→10¢ · Polymarket
• May 20↓ $120↓5pp22→17¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds