Who will be the first substitute White House Press Secretary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the first substitute White House Press Secretary
Who will be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?: Marco Rubio
0xcaf2d4…2dd6
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets estimate a 57% chance that one particular individual will be selected as the first substitute White House Press Secretary during the current administration. The probability reflects uncertainty around personnel decisions that depend on factors including staffing availability, internal political dynamics, and unforeseen departures or scheduling changes. The main driver of current odds appears to be the relative visibility and previous experience of the leading candidate compared to alternatives. Resolution will likely occur through an official White House announcement or credible reporting of the appointment, which could happen at any point depending on whether turnover in the position becomes necessary. The 43% runner-up probability suggests meaningful disagreement in the market about which candidate is most likely to receive this assignment.
- ›Current White House Press Secretary tenure and stated commitment to remaining in role
- ›Availability and prior media relations experience of the leading candidate versus alternatives
- ›Historical turnover rates for press secretaries in comparable administrations and their typical tenure length
- ›Proximity to major political events or scandals that might accelerate personnel changes
- ›Any public signals or reporting about succession planning or backup candidates within the administration
What moved the line
- May 3Marco Rubio↑6pp34→40¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.