SimpleFunctions
8 source contracts·Kalshi 8·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 1, 2027 · 556d

Will Jewell Loyd win Sixth Player of the Year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 8 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

13%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

13%

8 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$997

8 contracts

Closes

Dec 1, 2027

556 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 56% (18 days, 18 points)Aggregate: 56% on 2026-05-24
Aggregate of 8 contracts · 18d

Bracket families

8 clusters across 8 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Azzi Fudd win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$573

Cluster 2

Will Chennedy Carter win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$424

Cluster 3

Will Cameron Brink win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will DeWanna Bonner win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Jewell Loyd win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Marine Johannes win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Maddy Siegrist win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Sophie Cunningham win Sixth Player of the Year

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 13% probability indicates the market estimates roughly a 1-in-8 chance that Jewell Loyd wins the WNBA Sixth Player of the Year award. The prediction reflects Loyd's status as an elite bench contributor for the Seattle Storm, though she faces competition from higher-probability candidates like Chennedy Carter (39%) and Maddy Siegrist (7%). The award ultimately depends on voting by coaches, players, and media at season's end, which rewards bench players who significantly impact winning while coming off the bench. Loyd's probability would shift upward if the Storm secure a top playoff seed and she maintains strong offensive efficiency, or downward if other benchwarmers demonstrate superior scoring volume or team success. The award is typically decided in late May or early June following the regular season's conclusion.

  • Jewell Loyd's actual bench minutes and scoring efficiency during the 2026 WNBA regular season compared to other bench candidates
  • Seattle Storm's playoff seeding and win total—voters tend to favor sixth players on successful teams
  • Voting patterns from previous years showing whether elite scorers or well-rounded two-way contributors have won the award
  • Relative playing time allocation: whether Loyd is used more as a bench scorer or starter, which affects eligibility and narrative
  • Performance of competing candidates like Carter and Siegrist, particularly their volume and impact metrics over the full season

What moved the line

  • May 19Chennedy Carter6pp5347¢ · Kalshi
  • May 23Chennedy Carter3pp5053¢ · Kalshi
  • May 24Chennedy Carter3pp5356¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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