Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing Musk as an overwhelming 91% favorite to retain the top spot through end-2026, though the extreme 1,430% implied yield on "No" positions signals severe mispricing on the downside—typical of binary markets where tail outcomes get compressed.
Analysis
The market is pricing Musk as an overwhelming 91% favorite to retain the top spot through end-2026, though the extreme 1,430% implied yield on "No" positions signals severe mispricing on the downside—typical of binary markets where tail outcomes get compressed. With $22k open interest against only $2.5k daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk if large holders need to exit. The 258-day timeframe and neutral regime score suggest the market is relatively stable, but the 10 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution around potential wealth-shifting events (major market corrections, forced asset sales, or rival billionaire gains) that could rapidly shift rankings.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x01529e40f3b4cdf5eafe074adfe1bb9c152d57747ad93b7a87d3823d5d4d608f yes 100