Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?

The 25¢ price reflects a 25% probability despite exceptional 448% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be underpricing a low-probability, high-payoff event or pricing in significant tail risk around potential diplomatic developments. The 7-day price surge from 14¢ to 25¢ (79% increase) combined with extreme realized volatility of 639% and a Vol Ratio of 3.28 indicates recent information arrival (1.2/h) has substantially shifted sentiment, though the wide 9¢ spread and modest $1.273 daily volume raise liquidity concerns for position sizing. With 258 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as any Trump-Kim diplomatic signals could trigger sharp repricing in either direction.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Regime

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