Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?

This market is pricing an extremely low-probability event at 3¢ with minimal liquidity ($0 24h volume despite $18.9k open interest), creating a distorted 85,867% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects illiquidity rather than genuine conviction. The 1,905% realized volatility and recent 50% price appreciation (2¢ to 3¢) over seven days suggest speculative positioning rather than fundamental information flow, particularly given the near-zero information arrival rate of 0.3/h. With only 14 days to expiry and a 32 Cliff Risk Index, this market is vulnerable to sharp repricing on any geopolitical escalation, but the current pricing appears driven by thin order books rather than material probability reassessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade