Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

DISY is priced at 64¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile, where a "No" resolution offers 1,775% annualized yield compared to 561.6% for "Yes"—suggesting the market may be overweighting the incumbent's chances despite Cyprus's historically fragmented parliament. The contract has experienced extreme volatility (522% realized), jumping 9 cents over seven days on just $40K daily volume, indicating thin liquidity and potential for sharp repricing as the May 24, 2026 election approaches in 37 days. The 2.20 volatility ratio and 4.5 info arrivals per hour signal active repricing dynamics, though the tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest current pricing reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a directional consensus.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Cyprus on May 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Cyprus House of Representatives. If voting in the Cyprus House of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Service of the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Cyprus (https://elections.gov.cy).

Indicators

Regime

Trade