Will UNLV win the College Football Mountain West Championship?

22¢

Bid/Ask 0/35¢·Spread 35¢·Vol $0·OI $5·Closes Jan 3, 2027·261d remaining

KXNCAAFMWC-26-UNLV

7-day price24 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 22¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 35¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the 494.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or reflects the genuine difficulty of UNLV winning the Mountain West—a conference historically dominated by stronger programs. The sharp 14¢ price jump over seven days combined with minimal liquidity and a Cliff Risk Index of 4 indicates this market could experience significant volatility on limited order flow.

Resolution rules

If UNLV wins the 2026 College Football Mountain West Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 496.6%

IY (No) 39.5%

Adj IY 248%

CRI 4

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	496.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	248%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

35¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 12:40:19 AM

Observability directEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/18/2026, 12:38:51 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAAFMWC-26-UNLV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →