Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?

92¢mid

Bid/Ask 86/97¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·12d remaining

KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.1

7-day price4 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 11¢ spread and only 12 days to expiration, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote. The implied yields are nonsensical (493.7% for Yes, 18630% for No), indicating the pricing model has broken down entirely in the absence of real trading activity. With Spain's recent GDP growth consistently in the 0.6-0.8% QoQ range and the flash estimate due imminently, this market appears abandoned and unreliable for prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

If Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.0%

IY (No) 18792.6%

Adj IY 8195%

CRI 6

Overround 5.0%

LAS 0.13

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18792.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8195%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/18/2026, 8:24:10 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 8:38:22 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →