Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

The 4¢ price reflects extremely low probability despite a 75-day window and $79.9k open interest, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 11,729.7% implied yield versus just 20.4% for No—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep skepticism about escalation or illiquidity-driven mispricing. The zero spread and flat 7-day price action indicate minimal conviction for movement, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 warrants attention given geopolitical volatility and the market's sensitivity to any Iran-related military developments. With $12.9k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is modest relative to open interest, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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