Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

The market is pricing GPT-6's release before GTA VI at 70%, but the asymmetric payoff structure reveals significant skepticism about the "No" outcome, with the No side offering an extreme 811.5% implied yield compared to 149% for Yes. With $46.4M in open interest and only a 2¢ spread on $3.1M daily volume, this is a reasonably liquid market, though the 105-day timeframe to expiry and neutral regime (0.341 score) suggest traders are genuinely uncertain despite the headline probability. The modest 2-point price movement over seven days and low cliff risk index (2) indicate the market has largely priced in available information, making this a relatively stable positioning rather than a volatile speculation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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