Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. Katie Porter is priced at a 6% win probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,425.6% for YES positions, suggesting the market views her gubernatorial chances as extremely remote.
Analysis
Katie Porter is priced at a 6% win probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,425.6% for YES positions, suggesting the market views her gubernatorial chances as extremely remote. The 200-day timeframe and $80.5M open interest provide reasonable liquidity, though the 13 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution around late-stage uncertainty. The 7-day price stability (5¢ to 6¢) and zero spread indicate consensus around this low probability, though the asymmetric yields (2,425.6% vs. 13.7%) reflect the market's conviction that NO is the heavily favored outcome.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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sf trade 0x11375fe1cf6665bbdee0cba5c2d48be1dedafab87841bd2eb8bc778c0402f457 yes 100