Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

The market is pricing a 62% probability of Díaz-Canel's removal by end-2026, but the asymmetric implied yields (87% for Yes vs. 231% for No) suggest traders are significantly more confident in continuity, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns. With only $28.5K open interest and $2.9K daily volume, liquidity is thin for a political event with 258 days to resolution and high realized volatility (190%), creating potential slippage on larger positions and vulnerability to information shocks given the 0.8 arrivals per hour rate. The tight 2¢ spread and modest 2-point cliff risk indicate the market is relatively stable, but the elevated vol ratio (1.98) suggests implied volatility is pricing in meaningful tail risk around potential political developments in Cuba.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade