Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...
Leader sits at 58% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
June 30
Spread
52pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by
Analysis
This prediction reflects a 58% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be removed as Cuba's leader by a specific date. The assessment reflects uncertainty around political succession in Cuba, where institutional mechanisms for leadership change are limited and controlled by the regime. The probability would likely increase if international pressure intensifies, internal party fractures become visible, or health crises emerge affecting leadership stability. Conversely, successful consolidation of party authority or external demonstrations of regime strength would lower the estimate. The key driver is whether structural instability or internal power struggles will overcome the regime's control mechanisms before the resolution date.
- ›Díaz-Canel's health status and public appearances as indicators of regime stability
- ›Visible rifts within Cuba's Communist Party leadership or military establishment
- ›Economic deterioration or humanitarian crises that destabilize state institutions
- ›International diplomatic or economic pressure campaigns targeting regime change
- ›Succession planning signals from the Castro family or other established power networks
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (58% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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