What is the current probability for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 61 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1896.6% and 189.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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24¢

Bid/Ask 23/24¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $12,598.792·OI $24,217.393·Closes Jun 30, 2026·61d remaining

0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515

7-day price241 snapshots · 122 regime

52¢24¢ current

Apr 816¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1896.6%

IY (No) 189.1%

Adj IY 909%

CRI 3

LAS 0.04

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1896.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	189.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	909%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 1:24:08 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 1:23:54 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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