Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes position trading at just 5¢ despite a reasonable 3.0-3.5% GDP growth range, implying only a 5% probability when historical Q1 growth averages suggest higher likelihood. The 53,672% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects severe undervaluation, compounded by the market's dramatic 72-cent collapse over seven days and sky-high 1,905% realized volatility, indicating panic selling rather than fundamental reassessment. With resolution occurring today (market closes 4/30/2026 matching the GDP release date), the 13-day cliff risk and thin $5.4M open interest suggest this mispriced tail bet could see sharp repricing once actual Q1 GDP data arrives, though the $568K daily volume provides minimal liquidity for large position exits.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

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