What is the current probability for "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 701.6% and 29.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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17¢

Bid/Ask 16/17¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $395.289·OI $61,308.023·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0x18076e7d0f58a52d3d4f311d0456306edf16d1873cf5eef27d3ff044153e9576

7-day price47 snapshots · 82 regime

19¢17¢ current

Apr 812¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 701.6%

IY (No) 29.4%

Adj IY 351%

CRI 5

Overround -0.7%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	701.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	351%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:04:12 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:53:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x18076e7d0f58a52d3d4f311d0456306edf16d1873cf5eef27d3ff044153e9576 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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