What is the current probability for "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3540.4% and 79.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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13¢

Bid/Ask 12/13¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $10,075.032·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining

0x20923dc0347ba0d72fef151d71911780b54eb15efc8499692f494e1e36a279ce

7-day price59 snapshots · 3 regime

18¢13¢ current

Apr 1111¢Apr 16

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3540.4%

IY (No) 79.1%

Adj IY 1770%

CRI 7

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3540.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	79.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1770%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:09:30 AM

Observability mediumEvent type scientific

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:08:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x20923dc0347ba0d72fef151d71911780b54eb15efc8499692f494e1e36a279ce yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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