Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.9% and 2.2%?

This market has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (up 150% from 22¢ to 55¢), suggesting significant new information arrival at 1.6 events per hour, yet liquidity remains thin with only $41.13 in 24-hour volume against a $927k open interest. The extreme realized volatility of 1694% and asymmetric implied yields (1044% for No vs. 699% for Yes) indicate substantial uncertainty about whether Brazil's Q1 2026 YoY GDP will fall within this narrow 1.9-2.2% band, with the market pricing only a 55% probability despite the tight 20¢ spread suggesting some consensus around current pricing. With 43 days to resolution and a neutral regime score, traders should monitor incoming Brazilian economic data closely, as the high cliff risk index (1.0) suggests potential for sharp repricing near the May 29 deadline.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

Indicators

Regime

Trade