Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Polymarket, closing September 15, 2026. John Shulli's Republican nomination odds are priced at 57¢ with exceptionally high realized volatility (141%) and an unusually elevated No-side implied yield of 306%, suggesting significant uncertainty about whether a competitive primary will even materialize.
Analysis
John Shulli's Republican nomination odds are priced at 57¢ with exceptionally high realized volatility (141%) and an unusually elevated No-side implied yield of 306%, suggesting significant uncertainty about whether a competitive primary will even materialize. The market shows minimal recent price movement despite 152 days to expiration and thin liquidity ($7.04 24h volume against $14.95M open interest), indicating the 57¢ level may be sticky rather than actively discovered. The "Other" resolution clause and neutral regime score (0.5) suggest material tail risk around primary cancellation or consolidation, which could explain the inverted yield structure favoring the No side.
Also on kalshi at 50¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Delaware. If no 2026 Delaware Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Delaware Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade 0x294cb485e8649a22ce12387104065729533d1b79db63b41f89ce5072429e08bf yes 100