Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Delaware?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Delaware?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $548 in open interest, suggesting very low liquidity despite a moderate 55¢ price point.
Analysis
This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $548 in open interest, suggesting very low liquidity despite a moderate 55¢ price point. The 5¢ spread and symmetric 64.5% implied yields indicate balanced but thin orderbook depth, with the risk-adjusted yield of 32% reflecting the substantial time value over 566 days to expiration. The slight downward drift from 51¢ to 50¢ over seven days is marginal noise given the illiquidity, and the neutral regime score suggests no significant market conviction about Shulli's nomination prospects.
Also on polymarket at 55¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If John Shulli wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Delaware Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEDER-26-JSHU yes 100