Will President Trump sign 7 or more pieces of legislation into law in April?

The market has surged 68% over seven days to 37¢, suggesting recent positive developments for Trump legislative activity, though the extremely wide 24¢ spread and anemic $2.667 daily volume indicate severe illiquidity that may distort pricing. The astronomical 4518% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the steep odds rather than genuine opportunity, while the 7189% realized volatility and 3.57 vol ratio signal extreme price instability typical of thin markets approaching resolution with only 14 days remaining. With an information arrival rate of 6.0 events per hour, this market is pricing in meaningful legislative momentum, but traders should be cautious given the liquidity constraints and the cliff risk of binary resolution in mid-April.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade