Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 79¢ reflects a strong but not overwhelming lean, with the 48.4% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting modest upside potential, though the extreme 684.3% yield on the No side indicates the market heavily discounts a Republican upset. The 224% realized volatility and 3.00 vol ratio signal substantial price swings despite relatively thin liquidity ($11.2M open interest), and the 1.6 info arrivals per hour suggest active trading around Virginia's 6th district dynamics. With 201 days to expiry and a tight 3¢ spread, this market appears fairly priced for a Democratic-leaning seat, though the high volatility warrants caution for position-takers betting on mean reversion.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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