Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Derek Dooley's nomination odds have collapsed 22% over the past week, now trading at just 7¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $24.7K in open interest, suggesting the market has largely priced him out as a viable candidate.
Analysis
Derek Dooley's nomination odds have collapsed 22% over the past week, now trading at just 7¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $24.7K in open interest, suggesting the market has largely priced him out as a viable candidate. The extreme 15,176% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the illiquidity and low conviction at these depressed odds, while the 13 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges before the May 2026 primary. With 32 days to expiry and a 1¢ spread, this appears to be a long-shot position with minimal trading activity.
Also on kalshi at 5¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia. If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x3b408ff1bc692be77ce9c3b1044ca4f6a0af3c1d2f245cb096c299005c4a0d48 yes 100