Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 59% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mike Collins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
Derek Dooley
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
May 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets assess an 85% chance that the leading Republican candidate wins Georgia's Senate primary. The current odds reflect positioning among the field of candidates competing for the Republican nomination. Movement in this probability would likely stem from candidate endorsements, campaign funding announcements, or shifts in polling data measuring voter preference among registered Republicans in Georgia. The primary election date itself would be the key event that resolves this contract, determining the actual winner and settling all related bets based on official results.
- ›Current market pricing reflects an 85% probability for the leading candidate versus 4% for the runner-up, indicating substantial but not overwhelming confidence in the favorite
- ›Candidate endorsements, particularly from high-profile figures or sitting officeholders, historically correlate with shifts in Republican primary probabilities
- ›Campaign finance disclosures showing fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position would provide concrete data on candidate resources and viability
- ›Public polling data from Georgia among likely Republican primary voters would establish whether market odds align with or diverge from survey-based preferences
- ›Early voting or election results from similar recent Republican primaries in other states could signal regional momentum or enthusiasm that affects Georgia positioning
What moved the line
- Jun 14Mike Collins↑3pp94→97¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14Derek Dooley↓3pp5→2¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (59% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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