Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low 4% probability of Indian warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz in the next 13 days, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 67,307%—a massive disconnect suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail-risk hedging. The sharp price decline from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days combined with the 24 Cliff Risk Index indicates growing conviction toward No resolution, though the $22.9M open interest dwarfs the $352K daily volume, suggesting illiquidity could amplify moves if sentiment shifts. With resolution just two weeks away and no apparent geopolitical catalyst for such a transit, the market appears to be pricing in a near-zero baseline probability with a tiny speculative premium for black-swan scenarios.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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