Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

The 30% probability reflects substantial skepticism about near-term peace prospects, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 330% annualized yield, creating a significant risk-reward asymmetry that may attract contrarian bettors despite thin $136.64 daily volume. The modest 7-day price appreciation (28¢ to 30¢) and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks conviction either direction, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable liquidity for entry. With 258 days to expiry and low cliff risk, this appears to be a patient trader's market where geopolitical developments could dramatically reprrice the currently undervalued Yes position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade