Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing June 17, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 10% probability of a Fed rate cut by June 2026, down from 13¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent economic data has reduced cut expectations.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 10% probability of a Fed rate cut by June 2026, down from 13¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent economic data has reduced cut expectations. The extreme 5,384% implied yield on the "Yes" side reflects the deep out-of-the-money pricing, though this is offset by a critically high 9/10 cliff risk index and 651% realized volatility, indicating substantial uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing. With just $464 in 24-hour volume against $27.5K open interest and 61 days to expiry, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating execution risk for larger traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4d162a40c3e3f458b0e0017485d7f9e6ead0cdd0573e38b26e0d5420525ccfa4 yes 100