Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June?

This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome—just 4% probability that crude oil settles in the $56-$63 range by June 2026—yet displays a staggering 11,850% annualized yield for "Yes" positions, suggesting severe mispricing or that the market is effectively dead with minimal liquidity ($5,872 open interest, zero 24-hour volume). The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate no recent conviction, while the high Cliff Risk Index of 24 warns of potential sharp repricing closer to the 6/30/2026 expiration, making this a speculative contrarian bet rather than a liquid, efficiently-priced market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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Regime

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