Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Apple's probability of remaining the world's largest company has declined sharply from 13¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting traders are increasingly pricing in competition from rivals like Saudi Aramco or other mega-cap contenders by end-2026.
Analysis
Apple's probability of remaining the world's largest company has declined sharply from 13¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting traders are increasingly pricing in competition from rivals like Saudi Aramco or other mega-cap contenders by end-2026. The extreme 1,273% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deeply discounted price, though the 9/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk and potential for sharp repricing as we approach the December 2026 resolution. With $57.8M in open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity appears reasonable, but the neutral regime score (0.341) suggests market uncertainty about the underlying macro conditions that will determine which company holds the top spot in 258 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Regime
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sf trade 0x55a5a4b50b7947482e95af8f638fa0b8d9a46740c5cd04c6799443e83565176a yes 100