Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

The 28¢ price reflects a 28% probability of Powell leaving the Fed Board by May 2027, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 364% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile—particularly given Powell's term doesn't expire until 2026 and removal would require extraordinary circumstances. The sharp 7-day decline from 41¢ to 28¢ combined with extreme realized volatility of 407% and a vol ratio of 2.34 indicates this market has experienced substantial price swings, though current 24-hour volume of $2.3K against $20.4K open interest suggests relatively thin liquidity that could amplify future moves. The 3¢ spread and neutral regime score point to a market in equilibrium, but the high implied yield on the Yes side warrants scrutiny—traders may be pricing in tail risks (resignation, health emergency, political pressure) that the baseline 28% probability undervalues.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Indicators

Regime

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