Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
37%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?: December 31
0xbb1e75…8463
Analysis
This probability reflects market estimates that Jerome Powell will exit the Federal Reserve Board entirely by December 31, 2026—not just leave the Fed Chair role. Powell currently serves as Chair with a term extending to 2026, and Board membership involves separate statutory considerations. The 38% probability is notably higher than the sub-5% odds on earlier exits (May 30), suggesting markets price in some near-term risk but view a full exit by year-end as moderately unlikely. Key drivers include whether Powell faces pressure to resign versus complete a term, potential successor confirmation timelines, and political dynamics around Federal Reserve leadership. The most concrete near-term catalyst is any formal announcement regarding Powell's future plans, as well as legislative or executive branch actions affecting Fed governance.
- ›Powell's current Fed Chair term structure and whether completion of that role involves automatic Board departure
- ›Historical precedent for sitting Fed Chairs remaining on the Board after stepping down from the Chair position
- ›Political pressure and confirmation speed for potential Fed Chair successors, which could influence Powell's timeline
- ›Any legislative changes to Fed Board structure or term length that could trigger earlier departures
- ›Market differentiation between 'Chair exit' contracts (77-97¢) versus 'Board exit' contracts (4-39¢), indicating significant structural uncertainty
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (37% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.