Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

The 39¢ price implies a 39% probability that Anthropic reaches 1550 on Chatbot Arena first by year-end 2026, but the asymmetric implied yields (212% for Yes vs. 94% for No) suggest the market may be underpricing Anthropic's chances given their competitive position in frontier models. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $2.4M open interest and a tight 3¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades, though the neutral regime and moderate 0.6/h info arrival rate suggest the market isn't pricing in imminent major developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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