Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 4939.6% implied yield on the Yes side against just 48.3% on the No side, reflecting the low 9¢ price and substantial tail-risk premium for a geopolitically sensitive outcome. The 7-day price decline from 12¢ to 9¢ suggests weakening conviction in a House member visiting Iran over the next 75 days, though the $40.2M open interest and tight 1¢ spread indicate active participation despite the low probability. The elevated 10 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as binary geopolitical events can experience sudden repricing if diplomatic developments or congressional delegations shift expectations materially.

Resolution rules

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade