Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
0x66bb726a78761329326fa100fb541af99eb423b1325b8824199251a6c77024fa · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 499.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 4.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1312% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 13.20 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 499% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
313 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that extends Section 181 expensing for film and television productions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes H.R. 4787 (119th). Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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