Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?

The market is pricing an extremely low 8% probability of WTI touching $70 in April 2026, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" position reaches an extraordinary 30,494%, suggesting severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand. The sharp 43% price decline over seven days (14¢ to 8¢) combined with realized volatility of 1,038% and a cliff risk index of 12 indicates significant recent repricing, though the 0.74 vol ratio suggests current realized volatility is moderating relative to historical levels. With $119M in 24-hour volume and only 14 days to expiration, liquidity is robust, but the asymmetric yield profile and high information arrival rate (0.9/h) warrant caution—this could reflect either genuine conviction that $70 is unrealistic or a liquidity trap for contrarian traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Indicators

Regime

Trade