Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?. This contract trades at 67¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. NVIDIA is priced at a substantial 72% probability of holding the world's largest market cap through end-2026, but the asymmetric yield profile—with "No" offering 382.6% versus "Yes" at 52.3%—suggests significant tail risk that the market is pricing in despite the high baseline confidence.
Analysis
NVIDIA is priced at a substantial 72% probability of holding the world's largest market cap through end-2026, but the asymmetric yield profile—with "No" offering 382.6% versus "Yes" at 52.3%—suggests significant tail risk that the market is pricing in despite the high baseline confidence. The 114% realized volatility and modest $5.3M daily volume indicate meaningful uncertainty around this outcome, particularly given the 258-day timeframe allows considerable room for competitive shifts among mega-cap tech peers like Apple and Microsoft. The recent 4-cent rally from 68¢ to 72¢ over seven days warrants monitoring for whether this reflects genuine conviction or momentum-driven positioning ahead of earnings catalysts.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x684e5b72d4e407695397a79ed75ef37273c2655ca2548791a4153233d3744696 yes 100