Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin would need to appreciate roughly 370% from current levels (~$93k) to hit $250k by end-2026, yet the market prices this outcome at just 4% probability with an extraordinary 3,382% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting either severe underpricing of tail risk or the market is appropriately skeptical of such explosive gains in 26 months. The $113M open interest and $6.2M daily volume indicate reasonable liquidity despite the extreme odds, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index flags potential resolution ambiguity around the specific Binance candle methodology that could create disputes near the threshold. With 259 days to expiry and a tight 0¢ spread, this appears to be a genuine long-shot bet rather than a mispriced anomaly, though the asymmetric payoff structure attracts speculative capital.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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